п»їNFL Week 5 teaser pick rankings: Why Seahawks lead several strong candidates for a winning teaser.
We're trying to keep our undefeated teaser streak rolling as the NFL enters its fifth week of play.
Last week was not great for my spread picks overall, but I was able to sweat out a win on our Teaser of the Week to move to 4-0 on the season thanks to the Bears getting through the backdoor on our +8.5 line. Couple that with an easy Packers cover on Monday night and we're now on the hunt for a fifth straight win to start the season while also coming off a week where our top six ranked teams got us teased wins.
One option that has to go in the teaser this week is the Seahawks. They had some trouble scoring early in their Week 4 game against the Dolphins, but that was to be expected on the long road trip, and they still covered in the eight-point win. Their defense surprisingly did a great job on their side of the field, holding Miami to a ton of field goal tries. Then you have the Vikings, a team so bad that losing to them caused the Texans to fire their coach and GM. The line for the game moved 2.5 points off the lookahead toward the Vikings in their Sunday night matchup against the Seahawks, and that puts it in a perfect place for us to tease down to Seahawks -1.
I've done the legwork of going through all the lines as of Tuesday night and identifying the best teasing opportunities. Below, I've ranked all the sides I think are in play for teasers this week, considering only the standard six-point teasers. You can take the top two options and put them together for my Teaser of the Week, or you can be bold and try and hit a bigger payout.
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Ranking teaser options.
1. Seahawks -1 vs. Vikings.
This is a great defensive matchup for Seattle, a rush defense that ranks sixth in DVOA. I can't imagine Kirk Cousins going blow for blow with Russell Wilson, who gets to feast on a bad Minnesota secondary in this matchup. Are the Vikings really going to put together back-to-back road wins with how bad they looked through the first three weeks? Doesn't seem likely.
2. Cardinals -1 at Jets.
Joe Flacco will likely be under center for a Jets team that has been awful, and even on long rest I can't see the Jets getting their first win of the season here. The Cardinals have now struggled for two straight weeks, but this is still the team that went on the road to beat the defending NFC champions in Week 1. This is a great spot for Kliff Kingsbury and Co. to get right.
3. Browns +7.5 vs. Colts.
This line was Colts -3 but dropped to Colts -1.5 on Tuesday with people realizing that there isn't a large gap -- or maybe even any gap at all -- between these two teams. Cleveland impressed in a win over Dallas, and while the Colts defense looks like the best in the league, they continue to play a who's who of bad offenses. Kevin Stefanksi has this run game firing on all cylinders, and with the Browns defense getting healthier by the week, we shouldn't expect a Colts blowout win here.
4. Rams -1.5 at Washington.
This should be an easy win for a Rams team that ranks second in DVOA on offense, and though the offense is only middle of the pack, the Rams have allowed 20-plus points just once in four games. Washington's offense has struggled all season, and the defense took a step back after an excellent Week 1 showing. The Rams played about as poorly as they could have offensively last week and still beat the Giants by eight points. If Washington is better than the Giants, it's not by much.
5. Panthers +8 at Falcons.
The Panthers defense has come together much more quickly than anyone imagined, shutting down the Chargers and Cardinals in back-to-back weeks. And while you may want to dock them for getting to face Justin Herbert in that Chargers game, he sure has done a fine job in his other two starts against the Chiefs and Bucs. The Falcons on Monday looked like a team playing out the string waiting for Dan Quinn to get fired, while the Panthers are clearly a team on the rise.
6. Texans PK vs. Jaguars.
It seems like the Texans players were ready to be done with Bill O'Brien, revolting after he planned to bring Earl Thomas into the fold last week. Even though I don't expect Romeo Crennel to be an upgrade on the whole (O'Brien actually has a record of coaching success), I certainly think the Texans will get a boost this week. Deshaun Watson should carve up a terrible Jaguars pass defense, and even if good Gardner Minshew shows up, I expect Watson to lead his team to a win.
7. Saints -1.5 vs. Chargers.
I expect the Saints will be relatively safe to tease, but who knows if the New Orleans offense reverts back to struggling this week, or if Justin Herbert has a big game against a Saints defense that is last in the league in points allowed per drive (but somehow eighth in DVOA?). With this game on Monday, better to opt for the options above.
8. Steelers -1 vs. Eagles.
Until the Eagles offense gets healthy, we probably can't count on them to beat good defenses. But they did manage a win against a good 49ers defense last week, so who knows? The Eagles defense has played pretty well all things considered, ranking in the top 10 in points per drive, yards per rush and net yards per pass attempt. I could see Philadelphia turning this into a low-scoring battle where they can sneak out a win, but more than likely Pittsburgh wins this with ease.
Lines to avoid teasing.
Buccaneers (-4.5) at Bears.
Sure, teasing the Bears up to +10.5 seems pretty safe, but if Tom Brady is on his game, I could see him scoring into the 20s with practice-squadders if he has to, and I'm not sure the Bears get to 10 against a great Bucs defense. They were only a few minutes away from ending last week's game with just three points, after all.
Giants at Cowboys (-9.5)
Teasing the Cowboys down means you're expecting a defense that has been awful to date to get stops. Taking the Giants means backing an offense that has been awful to date to score points. I want no part of either scenario.
Bengals at Ravens (-13)
The Bengals have put together a few solid games in a row, so you could see them hanging in a divisional matchup here. But the Ravens also like steamrolling bad teams and had a 31-10 lead on Washington last week before a garbage-time touchdown. So let's just stay away.
Raiders at Chiefs (-13)
The Raiders have played better than the scoreboard indicates the last few weeks but keep getting done in by fumbles. In fact, they've turned the ball over six times this year but thrown no interceptions. I can see them running the ball well against a poor Chiefs rush defense and keeping this game close. Of course, I could also see the Chiefs scoring 50 and ruining any Raiders teasers. So let's just stay away.
Broncos at Patriots (OFF)
Assuming Cam Newton is ruled out for this game, I expect the Patriots to be favored by around six against the Broncos, making them a decent teasing option. While it's hard to have faith in that offense after what we saw last week, the quarterback (whoever it is) should be better with a full week of preparation.
Bills at Titans (OFF)
It's hard to say what type of line we'll get here without knowing who will be available for the Titans, but I'd be surprised if either team is favored by three points or more. If that's the case, teasing the 'dog up through 3 is a solid play. I'd be much happier doing that if I'm getting the Bills.
Dolphins at 49ers (OFF)
We're waiting to see who starts at quarterback for the 49ers, but whoever it is, they should be favored by at least six points in this matchup. And that makes them a nice candidate to tease down at anything between six and nine. Ryan Fitzpatrick knows the clock is ticking on his time under center.



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